Scenario Planning Versus Traditional Forecasting

Scenario planning is a process of conceptualizing future conditions or probable events, their associated consequences and effects that could potentially occur, and a means or response plan to address or benefit from them. This type of planning often considers events that have already taken place in the past to also include events that are happening in current, real-time that could inject probable disruptions to planning (Schultz Financial Group, 2021). There are several types of scenario planning such as quantitative scenarios, operational scenarios, normative scenarios, and strategic management scenarios (Ali & Luther, 2022).

Scenario planning also has a focus on the future and examines various explanations that could lead to different courses of actions or paths toward a specific future. Flexibility and better preparedness are key benefits that come with the execution of scenario planning to cope with risk and uncertainty as opposed to quantitative forecasting. Collaboration amongst groups of individuals, from varying levels of an organization’s hierarchy, results in a heightened degree of creativity and outside the box contemplation as opposed to analysis of raw quantitative variables. An example of how to apply scenario planning is with political elections as they can produce longer term, multitude of futures that incorporate many unknown risks and unknowns (Mortlock, 2021).

Some advantages of scenario planning include assisting stakeholders with understanding the effects of various events. This enables finance and operational units within organizations to better prepare initial responses to events. Key personnel often participate in the planning, which enables the organization to capture any crucial insights or suggestions from their relative areas of expertise. Some disadvantages to scenario planning include requiring analysts to consider realistic expectations. The process of planning is often very lengthy and requires a large number of resources or effort, which could take months to conceptualize and design. Fluidity can also present a challenge as plans often change rapidly (Ali & Luther, 2022).

Forecasting is designed with the assumption that various events that take place in the future are similar to current events. This is a less creative means and often does not take into account any major shifts in environments, resulting in organizational strategy and performance associated challenges. Forecasts often only present one possible future iteration, while scenarios can present several potential futures. Forecasting certainty is typically probable whereas scenario planning is plausible. Other key forecasting planning attributes are the information type is quantitative and does not factor risk and unknowns on a theoretical basis. There are not as many stakeholders engages in the planning process as compared to scenarios. The objectivity of forecasts is fact based and objective with a focus on a short term perspective. The results can easily be replicated versus scenarios involving unique representations. An example of forecasting is predicting airline passenger traffic (Schultz Financial Group, 2021).

 

References

Ali, R., & Luther, D. (2022, August 25). Scenario Planning: Strategy, Steps and Practical Examples. Oracle

Netsuite. https://www.netsuite.com/portal/resource/articles/financial-management/scenario-planning.shtml

Mortlock, L. (2021, May 12). Scenario Planning vs. Forecasting: 6 Questions to Ask to Prepare for a Post-

Pandemic Future. Leading Blog.

https://www.leadershipnow.com/leadingblog/2021/05/scenario_planning_vs_forecasti.html

Schultz Financial Group. (2021, August 20). Scenario Planning vs. Forecasting.

https://sfginc.com/scenario-planning-versus-forecasting/

Accidental Game-Changing Ideas

Accidental Game-Changing Ideas

Some of the commercial products that consumers purchase and use in the modern world were created as a result of accidents, often trying to create or invent the opposite of the intended original design or idea. Some of these “mistakes” can come with a silver lining, at times on a scale that is large enough to change an entire industry. Whether it be a scientist not paying close attention to lab procedural protocol, a chef that perhaps spilled the wrong ingredients into some cuisine, or an inventor that was perhaps misguided in their innovative approach. Modern society should be thankful for some of these accidental ideas and inventions.

Several ideas such as the creation of penicillin, the toy slinky, Post-It Notes, plastics, Kevlar, potato chips, Play-Doh, stainless steel, Viagra, Teflon, cardiac pacemakers, Minoxidil, insulin, and many other innovations have shaped the past, present, and will continue to do so for the future. There are no limits to the creative capacity of humans and it will be an exciting future to behold. Artificial intelligence, will hopefully add to the mix as it gains more capability, efficiency, and consciousness.

Microwave Ovens

What Was Learned

One such accidental innovation that has changed the world, is the microwave oven. The microwave oven is a miraculous machine that can be found within over 90 percent of American homes, providing hundreds of millions of people access to with various types of food within a very short time of cooking and preparation (Wesley, 2018). The history behind this amazing invention is an interesting one. A Raytheon engineer, Percy Spencer, in 1946 was involved with work on a magnetron, which is a primary part of radar propagation systems. While working on the magnetron, Spencer discovered a candy bar melted in his shirt pocket whenever he was within close proximity to the device. Curiosity aroused, he put an egg into the beam path of the magnetron and it was discovered to start cooking, subsequently exploding in his face. Spencer tried various other food types, even making popcorn out of corn kernels (Wesley, 2018).

The Forces That Supported It

Spencer did not know that that cooking with the microwaves emitted from a magnetron was safe. Today, it is known that low doses of electromagnetic radiation are considered safe. When he was attempting to improve upon the power level of the magnetron vacuum tubes utilized in radar systems, he made the discovery with the candy bar (Blitz, 2022). Spencer was quickly able to deduce, after several experiments, that the low-density magnetron energy could quickly cook food. He then developed a metal container with a port that transmitted the microwave energy. A high-density magnetic field was created from the microwave energy trapped in the container. Once he placed food within the container, the food was cooked as a result of the heat generated from the microwave energy. This resulted in an early precursor to the modern microwave that modern households have in their kitchens (Celcook, 2017).

This invention has enabled many families, especially those of limited income, to quickly and expediently prepare meals that would have otherwise taken a long amount of time to cook. This saves money regarding energy sources, such as firewood, fuel, natural gas, propane, etc. The microwave is clean and cheap to use making it beneficial to saving time for other intellectual or recreational pursuits.

Kevlar

What Was Learned

Another accidental innovative discovery and invention involves the super strong polymer known as Kevlar. This creation was created by accident in 1965. Stephanie Kwolek was analyzing low temperature molecule strains and noticed a specific molecule chain formation that was exceptionally strong and rigid. This molecule chain formation was found to be the strongest that any researcher had observed before. A type of plastic that would be strong enough to withstand the penetration of ammunition and knives. This material was described as being five times stronger than steel on an equal weight comparison (Stolk, n.d.).

The Forces That Supported It

Kevlar is essentially a super-strong plastic. Technically, Kevlar is a synthetic aromatic polyamide polymer, which is a distant relative of nylon. Originally, it was made as a lighter weight replacement for the steel bracing in car tires. It is better know for its utilization in body armor, which has saved countless lives. Kevlar is strong and light and does not easily melt. Additionally, low temperatures have no effect on Kevlar, resulted in increased tactical field usage in cold climates and environments. The material is able to withstand exposure to various different chemicals. While Kevlar is know for its extremely high tensile (pulling) strength, it has extremely poor compressive strength (resistance to crushing). This material would not be used in the construction of buildings, bridges, or other structures where there are common compressive forces present (Woodford, 2021).

This synthetic polymer material has been a lifesaver on and off the battlefield. Kevlar body armor and helmets have save countless Soldiers’ and police officer’s lives. It has also improved performance (and also the lives of their operators and passengers) in car tires, brakes, vehicle and aircraft bodies, buildings, and other structures. A quirky trend lately has been in the adoption of tactical clothing incorporating Kevlar. The film, John Wick, comes to mind when thinking of bulletproof suits. In Colombia, for example, customers are purchasing bullet-resistant clothing for safety purposes. These vests and jackets are lightweight, thermos-regulating, and are able to withstand ammunition penetration from 9mm to .357 Magnum (Flock, 2013). Discrete fashion is a key attribute that attracts customers such as President Barack Obama, who wore a protective garment during his 2009 presidential inauguration (Mahoney, 2009).

 

 

References

Blitz, M. (2022, October 21). The Amazing True Story of How the Microwave Was Invented by Accident.

Popular Mechanics. https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/gadgets/a19567/how-the-microwave-was-invented-by-accident/

Celcook. (2017, December 29). The Accidental Invention of the Microwave. https://celcook.ca/the-

accidental-invention-of-the-microwave/

Flock, E. (2013, May 10). The Rise of Bulletproof Fashion – It’s No Longer About Safety. US News.

https://www.usnews.com/news/articles/2013/05/10/bulletproof-garb-about-safety--and-making-a-statement

Mahoney, J. (2009, January 21). Barack Obama’s Bulletproof Inaugural Suit. Gizmodo.

https://gizmodo.com/barack-obamas-bulletproof-inaugural-suit-5136183

Stolk, C. (n.d.). How One “Failure” Changed the World: The Story of Kevlar. Edge of Yesterday.

https://www.edgeofyesterday.com/time-travelers/how-one-failure-changed-the-world-the-story-of-kevlar

Wesley, D. (2018, July 3). 10 Life-Changing Inventions That Were Discovered By Accident. Listverse.

https://listverse.com/2018/07/03/10-life-changing-inventions-that-were-discovered-by-accident/

Woodford, C. (2021, July 8). Kevlar. Explain That Stuff. https://www.explainthatstuff.com/kevlar.html

A Contrast of Two Research Group Decision-Making Methods

Research Group Decision-Making Methods

The Delphi Method

The Delphi Method is one of several effective group decision making techniques or methods that enable participants to effectively collaborate within a team on crucial and substantive decisions. This method is defined as a communication architecture that has as its objective to effectively produce a detailed critical examination and subsequent discission (Green, 2014). The Delphi Method was devised and developed by Project RAND during the 1950s time period to forecast the effect of various forms of technology on modern warfare of the time (RAND, n.d.). This methodology was used to develop consensus amongst experts after repeating numerous rounds of group feedback anonymously, which was then used to forecast future attacks by an enemy (Nasa et al., 2021).

The Delphi Method uses a panel of experts regarding the topic with each expert tasked with constructing an anonymous prediction. The experts and participants are all anonymous in addition to their predictions. This is to ensure that none of the attributes of the participants will be come a factor in affecting the predictive outcome (Nana et al., 2021). The process involves the development of the initial Delphi probe or question, expert panel selection, first round of questionnaire, collection and analysis of the round 1 responses from the experts, feedback, formulation of the second questionnaire with round 1 modification, repeat again for a round three, analysis of the final results, and distribution of the results to the panelists (Green, 2014).

Possibility Ranking

The Possibility Ranking method is a way of determining the optimal choice through the utilization of a voting system or creation of a team list to prioritize ideas and their approaches. When a group or team is attempting to generate a collective decision regarding an inquiry or issue that potentially may have several outcomes, this technique may be very practical and applicable to the situation whether its in an email, survey, or in person meeting (Dagher, 2021).

The process starts with asking all participants to generate a personal list of how they may prioritize differing options or methods. The participants are then requested to combine the lists to ascertain if there is a commonality of group opinions to produce a group consensus. The average of the most applicable option is selected by the group and agreed upon as the best option (Dagher, 2021).

Contrast

Between the two group decision-making methods, the Possibility Ranking method is perhaps the most expedient and simplest to engage within a group. The Delphi Method appears to be more formal and more process saturated with the various rounds and establishment of a panel. This method is more apt to provide a predictive forecast for selecting the best option for some future issue. The Possibility Ranking would be the preferred method for small, informal groups, such as a small IT project team trying to decide on the best course of action to take for a project taking place in real-time after hitting a snag.

 

References

Green, R. A. (2014). The Delphi Technique in Educational Research. SAGE Open, 4(2).

https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244014529773

Nasa, P., Jain, R., & Juneja, D. (2021). Delphi Methodology In Healthcare Research: How To Decide Its

Appropriateness. World Journal of Methodology, 11(4), 116–129. https://doi.org/10.5662/wjm.v11.i4.116

Dagher, K. (2021, June 21). 10 of the Most Effective Group Decision Making Techniques. Fellow.

https://fellow.app/blog/productivity/group-decision-making-techniques/

RAND Corporation. (n.d.). Delphi Method. https://www.rand.org/topics/delphi-method.html