Polaroid was once a brand that was synonymous with instant photography. This company was the defector leader in the industry for several decades until the time came when it was no longer. In fact, the word Polaroid is interchangeable with the term instant photos. The primary cause of the demise of Polaroid is due to a failure to innovate and keep up with the times.
During the company’s heyday, much effort was spent capitalizing on perfecting the techniques of instant photography with the product being a physical film photograph that could be created instantly at the time of capture. Previously, photographs had to be developed in a lab, which could be expensive, laborious, and time consuming for the consumer. Polaroid introduced a way to create tangible photographs instantly. A lack of vision on the company’s forecast of the future caused it to fail to adapt to inevitable currents of innovation.
The Polaroid company was created in 1937. The year 2000 was when the company began to seriously falter and fail. An unfortunate combination of patent violation, poor policies, and lack of vision and proper scenario planning for future technological trends contributed to the company’s ultimate demise and declaration of bankruptcy. The technological introduction and rise of digital cameras and digital photography is what ultimately did the company in (Gaudet, n.d.).
There were several reasons that Polaroid failed to innovate and adapt. The first was the failure to take advantage of the company’s own research. The company began research and development with digital camera photography technology as early as the 1960s. By the next decade, Polaroid had a 15% market share of the camera industry. Several patents for instant imaging innovations were filed. By 1989, nearly 42% of research and development budgeting by the company was earmarked for digital imaging products and then became the preeminent vendor of digital cameras by the end of the 1990s. However, Polaroid failed to capitalize on the company’s on research and development. Polaroid mistakenly forecast that consumers would still want to produce and have instant physical photographic prints from their cameras. No scenario planning was conducted to account for the possibility that consumers would want other options, such as digital media storage options or the eventual cloud storage beginning in the 2000s (Gaudet, n.d.).
The company maintained an over reliance on just one aspect of its product portfolio and did not diversify or take into account market trends. A misguided business model of adherence to analog photography and inability to innovate due to fear of business failure and risk as well as market disruptions from analog to digital photography were the primary catalysts for the company’s resulting bankruptcy (Gaudet, n.d.). Lastly, a miscalculation on the part of the management to the potential and popularity that digital camera photography held within the market at the time and future forecasts (Williams, 2022).
Figure 1
Polaroid Colorpack 80, Polaroid Land Camera 250, Polaroid OneStep
Summary
Regarding the utilization of scenario planning for innovative creation for future events, products, or inventions, attention needs to be carefully placed on the many things that could affect these efforts. Scenario planning also has a focus on the future and examines various explanations that could lead to different courses of actions or paths toward a specific future. Flexibility and better preparedness are key benefits that come with the execution of scenario planning to cope with risk and uncertainty as opposed to quantitative forecasting. Collaboration amongst groups of individuals, from varying levels of an organization’s hierarchy, results in a heightened degree of creativity and outside the box contemplation as opposed to analysis of raw quantitative variables (Mortlock, 2021).
For future innovation efforts, traditional forecasting would not be an ideal methodology to employ. Forecasting is designed with the assumption that various events that take place in the future are similar to current events. This is a less creative means and often does not take into account any major shifts in environments, resulting in organizational strategy and performance associated challenges. Forecasts often only present one possible future iteration, while scenarios can present several potential futures. Forecasting certainty is typically probable whereas scenario planning is plausible. Other key forecasting planning attributes are the information type is quantitative and does not factor risk and unknowns on a theoretical basis. There are not as many stakeholders engages in the planning process as compared to scenarios. The objectivity of forecasts is fact based and objective with a focus on a short term perspective (Schultz Financial Group, 2021).
Any scenario plans need to be critically aware of the social impactful impetuous that change will undoubtedly cause. For any technology, product, or service that is being developed for market inclusion to consumers should be thoroughly researched with significant scenario planning research conducted by subject matter experts to account for various impacts that could occur, whether by other technological innovations affecting the industry such as consumer preferences, governmental regulations and policies, economic effects and indicators such as recession or bull markets, safety and environmental impacts, religious and cultural implications, etc. Modern societies are different than they were over a hundred years ago. This is most apparent by the sudden shift from monarchies to representative democracies in the 20th century. Cultural sensibilities and societal norms have also changed and evolved over time. Any future innovation should have all future possibilities considered when taking all of these key factors into contemplation.
References
Gaudet, C. (n.d.). The Collapse of Polaroid – 4 Reasons Why Polaroid Failed and What We Can
Learn. Predictable Profits. https://predictableprofits.com/the-collapse-of-polaroid-4-reasons-why-polaroid-failed-and-what-we-can-learn/
Mortlock, L. (2021, May 12). Scenario Planning vs. Forecasting: 6 Questions to Ask to Prepare
for a Post-Pandemic Future. Leading Blog.
https://www.leadershipnow.com/leadingblog/2021/05/scenario_planning_vs_forecasti.html
Schultz Financial Group. (2021, August 20). Scenario Planning vs. Forecasting.
https://sfginc.com/scenario-planning-versus-forecasting/
Williams, N. (2022, August 25). The 5 Real Reasons Polaroid Failed. History Computer.
https://history-computer.com/the-x-real-reasons-polaroid-failed/
Williams, T., Jenkins, A., & Slinker, J. (2007). Flicker.
https://www.flickr.com/photos/timmythesuk/2062831919
